Get Out The Vote
Electoral Forecasting
Romney’s VP Choice Could Drastically Change Election Forecasts
Mitt Romney will soon announce a VP candidate to complete his ticket for the 2012 election. There is much media speculation about who Romney should and will choose, debating frontrunners including Ohio Senator Rob Portman, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. A Fox News Poll indicates that, while Obama is currently leading Romney overall by 45 percent to 41 percent, if Romney chose Condoleezza Rice as his VP running mate, his approval ratings could jump to 46 percent, putting his ticket tied with that of President Obama and Vice President Biden.
Scenario Probabilities
Five Thirty Eight predicts Obama will win the popular vote in the 2012 election. This New York Times-sponsored source predicts the likelihood of Obama winning the popular vote is 66.1 percent compared to Romney’s 33.9 percent. The probability of Obama losing at least one state he won in 2008 is 88.2 percent, while the probability of him picking up one state he lost in 2008 is 27.8 percent. Visit the State-By-State projections for information on your specific state!
Voter Mobilization Efforts
Rep. Steny Hoyer’s New Web App to Inform Voters Online
Steny Hoyer, Democratic Whip from Maryland, introduced an innovative website tool to spread awareness and information about voting and voter registration. Rep. Robert Brady, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, joined Hoyer in distributing a letter to their colleagues promoting the application.”In the last year, we have witnessed a nationwide assault on American citizens’ constitutionally — guaranteed right to vote,” they wrote. The app provides information about registering to vote in all 50 states, and even offer electronic reminders for registration and voting deadlines. Using his Twitter account, Rep. Hoyer thanked AAUW for posting about the voting rights application last Friday. You can install this great nonpartisan app on your branch or state website, as well as your personal blog! It’s a great way to ensure people know their voter registration status.
Youth Mobilize for Romney in Wisconsin
With Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney as the featured guest, Fighting for Wisconsin’s Future Youth Event mobilized young conservative voters in Waukesha, Wisconsin to discuss the cost of college, health care, unemployment, and youth political activism. Young voters pledged to utilize social media as part of their campaign work to boost Romney support among youth. The youth voting bloc is a key constituency for both candidates, since voters under the age of 30 accounted for a fourth of Obama’s total votes in 2008.
Facebook Voter Registration Begins in Washington
Washington has become the first state to allow voters to register through Facebook . Voters have been able to register online since 2008, but as part of a new initiative to boost voter registration, Microsoft Corp. and Facebook collaborated to allow quick and simple Facebook registration. Voter registration through Facebook costs the state nothing, and although users must enter their license or state ID number, none of the information is stored within the social media site.
Rock The Vote Launches Online Voter Registration Tool for Washington Voters
Rock the Vote, a nonpartisan organization dedicated to promoting youth political engagement, launched an online program to facilitate the process of online voter registration. The program connects with Washington’s existing online registration program, allowing young voters in the state to register easily and quickly from their computers. Voters from all 50 states may access their state’s voter registration forms online using Rock the Vote, but only Washington allows complete online voter registration. The president of Rock the Vote also announced plans to link their new program with online registration in California, Oregon, and Nevada.
Voter Suppression Concerns
In the months leading up to the November presidential election, efforts at voter suppression are underway. Many states have already passed laws that could effectively block or deter certain groups from casting their ballots. Under such circumstances, the work of our It’s My Vote campaign to educate and register voters is more important than ever.
Recent Study Explains How New ID Laws Prevent Citizens from Voting
A new study details the barriers faced by voters in ten states — Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin — now that unprecedented voter ID laws have been enacted. The voter identification required by these new laws is not equally accessible to all voters, due to limited office hours, high cost of required documents, and the problem of transportation to remote government offices. According to the study , more than 10 million voters face difficulty traveling to ID-issuing offices, and about half a million eligible voters have no access to a vehicle by which to travel to their office. The report concludes that “voter ID laws will make it harder for hundreds of thousands of poor Americans to vote.”
Despite Lack of Evidence for Voter Fraud, Pennsylvania Continues Defending New ID Law
The state of Pennsylvania recently signed a stipulation agreeing that “there have been no investigations or prosecutions of in-person voter fraud,” despite using such concerns to justify a strict voter identification law. The new admission complicates the argument supporting voter ID laws, and provides ammunition to civil rights groups filing suits against the ID laws. A recent Philadelphia Inquirer report indicates that about 9.2 percent of voters lack a driver’s license, which means the new ID laws could severely sway the voting results in Pennsylvania.
Florida Gains Access to Homeland Security List of Non-Citizens to “Prevent Voter Fraud”
The federal government gave the state of Florida access to a law enforcement database to challenge people at the voting booths suspected of not being citizens. State officials now have unprecedented access to a list of resident noncitizens, despite lacking evidence of voter fraud. Colorado, among other states, began asking for access to similar databases in hopes of either preventing fraud, or deterring certain minority citizens from voting. Republican Governor Rick Scott has supported measures to “ensure noncitizens do not vote,” but Democrats contend that Republicans are attempting to suppress the votes of minorities and disadvantaged citizens, who tend to vote Democrat.
Wisconsin, Alabama, Mississippi
Within these three states, all of which have newly enacted voter identification laws, fewer than half of state ID-issuing offices are open five days a week. Not a single office is open on weekends. The ID-issuing office in Woodville, Mississippi is only open the second Thursday of each month, while the office in Sauk City, Wisconsin, is only open the fifth Wednesday of any month. These limited hours severely restrict voters’ ability to attain the identification now required for voting.
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